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Northampton vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Northampton
Northampton
Preview
18:45
Tranmere
Tranmere
10/20/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 12Sixfields Stadium
50%
Northampton
model favours
50%26%24%

Northampton have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Northampton50%
×Draw26%
Tranmere24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
1.48
Tranmere
0.93

Northampton creates 59% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 144 away

creates per match

Northampton
1.48
Tranmere
0.97

allows per match

Northampton
0.89
Tranmere
1.47

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par
Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
76%
Northampton or Tranmere
74%
Draw or Tranmere
50%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
25%
Tranmere wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
77%
Northampton 2+ goals
43%
Northampton 3+ goals
19%
Tranmere 1+ goals
61%
Tranmere 2+ goals
24%
Tranmere 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
68%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Tranmere away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Tranmere defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tranmere attack 0.97 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Northampton scores more
50%
level
26%
Tranmere scores more
24%

Northampton at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Northampton
Balanced
Tranmere
Balanced
48%PossessionBiggest gap50%
65%Pass accuracy67%
11.9Shots12.2
—xG1.13
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
NorthamptonTranmere

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

3
Northampton
1
Draws
0
Tranmere
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 25%
1–00–03–22–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Northampton
WDLLL
Tranmere
WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northampton vs Tranmere — Match Preview

Northampton face Tranmere on October 20, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Northampton host Tranmere at Sixfields Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.