Northampton 0–3 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Portsmouth

P. Lane 48', 26'

S. Raggett 11'

12/2/2023

League One · Round 13Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Northampton32%

×Draw28%

Portsmouth40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.25

Northampton

1.07

Portsmouth

1.25

Portsmouth creates 17% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 136 away

1.05

creates per match

1.32

1.19

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Northampton

1.05

Portsmouth

1.32

allows per match

Northampton

1.19

Portsmouth

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Portsmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

60%

Northampton or Portsmouth

72%

Draw or Portsmouth

68%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

12%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

66%

Northampton 2+ goals

29%

Northampton 3+ goals

9%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

71%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

36%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

44%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.19 · 93 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.09 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.05 + Portsmouth defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.07

Portsmouth attack 1.32 + Northampton defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Northampton scores more

32%

level

28%

Portsmouth scores more

40%

Portsmouth at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

P. Lane

Portsmouth · M

8.9

Match Events

11'

S. Raggett↳ J. Sparkes

22'

Will Norris

26'

P. Lane↳ C. Saydee

46'

J. Guthrie← J. Willis

46'

L. Appéré← M. Pinnock

47'

Kieron Bowie

48'

P. Lane↳ A. Robertson

72'

T. Devlin← C. Saydee

77'

W. Hondermarck← J. Sowerby

84'

B. Stevenson← A. Robertson

84'

J. Martin← P. Lane

89'

G. Whyte← A. Kamara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonPortsmouth

Overview

43%Possession57%

8Total Shots17

0Corners8

7Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots17

3On Target5

4Off Target5

1Blocked7

2Inside Box14

6Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

387Total Passes528

278Accurate Passes424

72%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

League One: Northampton 0–3 Portsmouth

Portsmouth beat Northampton 3-0 in League One on December 2, 2023.

Goals: S. Raggett (11'), P. Lane (26', 48').

Portsmouth controlled possession (57%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Sixfields Stadium in Northampton, East Midlands.

Northampton vs Portsmouth — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Northampton 0–3 Portsmouth