Northampton 2–3 Plymouth: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Plymouth

M. Jacobs 18'

E. List 13'

B. Wiredu 74'

M. Boateng 40'

L. Tolaj 28'

5/2/2026

League One · Round 46Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Northampton26%

×Draw23%

Plymouth52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.89

Northampton

1.27

Plymouth

1.89

Plymouth creates 49% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

1.32

creates per match

2.00

1.77

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Northampton

1.32

Plymouth

2.00

allows per match

Northampton

1.77

Plymouth

1.22

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Northampton-0.07on par

Plymouth-0.38scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

48%

Northampton or Plymouth

77%

Draw or Plymouth

74%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

11%

Plymouth wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

72%

Northampton 2+ goals

36%

Northampton 3+ goals

14%

Plymouth 1+ goals

85%

Plymouth 2+ goals

56%

Plymouth 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

33%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.77 · 8 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.32 + Plymouth defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Plymouth attack 2.00 + Northampton defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Northampton scores more

26%

level

23%

Plymouth scores more

52%

Plymouth at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

L. Tolaj

Plymouth · F

8.3

Match Events

13'

E. List↳ M. Jacobs

18'

M. Jacobs↳ N. Guinness-Walker

28'

34'

40'

45+1'

55'

55'

59'

62'

62'

63'

S. Hoskins← N. Guinness-Walker

64'

Elliot List

66'

Malachi Boateng

70'

K. Swyer← E. List

70'

J. Pleguezuelo← J. Edwards

70'

J. MacKenzie← M. Ross

74'

B. Wiredu↳ X. Amaechi

79'

84'

85'

85'

85'

D. Campbell← K. McAdam

87'

M. Sorinola← R. Curtis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonPlymouth

Overview

48%Possession52%

7Total Shots26

0.33Expected Goals (xG)4.85

2Corners8

17Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots26

4On Target10

1Off Target9

2Blocked7

3Inside Box21

4Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

255Total Passes266

145Accurate Passes167

57%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls14

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Northampton vs Plymouth

Plymouth beat Northampton 3-2 in League One on May 2, 2026.

Goals: E. List (13'), M. Jacobs (18'), L. Tolaj (28'), M. Boateng (40'), B. Wiredu (74').

Plymouth controlled possession (52%) and registered 26 shots to 7.

The match was played at Sixfields Stadium in Northampton.

Northampton vs Plymouth — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Northampton vs Plymouth