Northampton 3–1 Plymouth: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Plymouth

A. Williams 41', 21'

R. Watson 7' (pen)

J. Riley 10'

8/31/2019

League Two · Round 6PTS Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Northampton40%

×Draw28%

Plymouth32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.11

Northampton

1.26

Plymouth

1.11

Northampton creates 14% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 24 away

1.48

creates per match

1.33

0.89

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Northampton

1.48

Plymouth

1.33

allows per match

Northampton

0.89

Plymouth

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

68%

Northampton or Plymouth

72%

Draw or Plymouth

60%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

18%

Plymouth wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

72%

Northampton 2+ goals

36%

Northampton 3+ goals

13%

Plymouth 1+ goals

67%

Plymouth 2+ goals

30%

Plymouth 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

55%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Plymouth defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.26

Plymouth attack 1.33 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Northampton scores more

40%

level

28%

Plymouth scores more

32%

Northampton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

R. WatsonPenalty

10'

J. Riley

21'

A. Williams↳ S. Hoskins

41'

A. Williams↳ S. Hoskins

46'

B. Moore← G. Sawyer

46'

Joshua Grant← Z. Rudden

47'

M. Warburton

50'

D. Mayor

53'

B. Waters← M. Warburton

55'

67'

76'

77'

81'

V. Oliver← A. Williams

84'

C. Goode

Northampton

Plymouth

24

Palmer

3

▼

8

6

5

2

⚽

Riley

10

Mayor

15

Grant

9

▼

Taylor

21

McFadzean

39

▼

1

39

6

5

14

10

▼

Adams

8

⚽

Watson

17

McWilliam

11

⚽2

▼

Williams

7

A

Hoskins

20

▼

Warburton

Manager: K. Curle

53'▲B. Waters←▼M. Warburton

77'▲J. Martin←▼N. Adams

81'▲V. Oliver←▼A. Williams

Northampton substitutes

29Waters3Martin19Oliver9Smith16Wharton12Pollock33Fisher

Manager: R. Lowe

46'▲B. Moore←▼G. Sawyer

46'▲Joshua Grant←▼Z. Rudden

55'▲G. Cooper←▼R. Taylor

Plymouth substitutes

17Moore25Grant32Cooper14Baxter4Aimson1Cooper20Randell