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Northampton vs Oldham — League Two 2024

Northampton
Northampton
Preview
14:00
Oldham
Oldham
10/3/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 9Sixfields Stadium
44%
Oldham
model favours
27%29%44%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Northampton27%
×Draw29%
Oldham44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
0.94
Oldham
1.27

Oldham creates 35% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 30 away

creates per match

Northampton
0.67
Oldham
1.20

allows per match

Northampton
1.33
Oldham
1.20

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
56%
Northampton or Oldham
71%
Draw or Oldham
73%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
10%
Oldham wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
61%
Northampton 2+ goals
24%
Northampton 3+ goals
7%
Oldham 1+ goals
72%
Oldham 2+ goals
36%
Oldham 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
38%
Oldham (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 0.67 + Oldham defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Oldham attack 1.20 + Northampton defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Northampton scores more
27%
level
29%
Oldham scores more
44%

Oldham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Oldham outscore their xG (1.5 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Northampton
LLLLL
Oldham
WLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Northampton host Oldham

October 3, 2026: Northampton take on Oldham in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Northampton host Oldham at Sixfields Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.