Northampton 4–1 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Morecambe

C. Lines 75'

N. Adams 55'

R. Watson 45+1'

P. Anderson 28'

A. Phillips 64'

1/18/2020

League Two · Round 28PTS Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Northampton51%

×Draw25%

Morecambe24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.03

Northampton

1.60

Morecambe

1.03

Northampton creates 55% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 93 away

1.48

creates per match

1.17

0.89

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Northampton

1.48

Morecambe

1.17

allows per match

Northampton

0.89

Morecambe

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

76%

Northampton or Morecambe

75%

Draw or Morecambe

49%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

26%

Morecambe wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

80%

Northampton 2+ goals

47%

Northampton 3+ goals

22%

Morecambe 1+ goals

64%

Morecambe 2+ goals

28%

Morecambe 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

67%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Morecambe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.60

Morecambe attack 1.17 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Northampton scores more

51%

level

25%

Morecambe scores more

24%

Northampton at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44

P. Anderson

Northampton · F

7.9

Match Events

28'

P. Anderson↳ R. Watson

37'

R. Sutton← S. Old

45+1'

R. Watson↳ P. Anderson

55'

N. Adams

64'

A. Phillips

65'

A. Leitch-Smith← A. Kenyon

69'

M. Harriman← P. Anderson

70'

M. Warburton← V. Oliver

74'

J. O'Sullivan← A. Phillips

75'

C. Lines↳ N. Adams

77'

J. Martin← N. Adams

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonMorecambe

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots15

4Corners4

12Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots15

10On Target3

1Off Target6

2Blocked6

10Inside Box10

3Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

322Total Passes334

192Accurate Passes211

60%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls8

1Offsides2