Northampton 1–0 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fleetwood Town

12/1/2020

League One · Round 15PTS Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Northampton38%

×Draw27%

Fleetwood Town35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.19

Northampton

1.25

Fleetwood Town

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 133 away

1.05

creates per match

1.18

1.19

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Northampton

1.05

Fleetwood Town

1.18

allows per match

Northampton

1.19

Fleetwood Town

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

65%

Northampton or Fleetwood Town

73%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

62%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

16%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

71%

Northampton 2+ goals

36%

Northampton 3+ goals

13%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

70%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

33%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

52%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.19 · 93 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.44 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.05 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Fleetwood Town attack 1.18 + Northampton defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Northampton scores more

38%

level

27%

Fleetwood Town scores more

35%

Northampton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff