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Northampton vs Fleetwood Town — League One 2018

Northampton
Northampton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
8/6/2016League OneLeague One · Round 1Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Northampton39%
×Draw27%
Fleetwood Town34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
1.27
Fleetwood Town
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 135 away

creates per match

Northampton
1.11
Fleetwood Town
1.16

allows per match

Northampton
1.18
Fleetwood Town
1.43

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par
Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
66%
Northampton or Fleetwood Town
73%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
61%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
17%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
72%
Northampton 2+ goals
36%
Northampton 3+ goals
14%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
69%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
33%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
53%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.18 · 102 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.11 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Fleetwood Town attack 1.16 + Northampton defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Northampton scores more
39%
level
27%
Fleetwood Town scores more
34%

Northampton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Northampton 1–1 Fleetwood Town

Northampton and Fleetwood Town drew 1-1 in League One on August 6, 2016.

The match was played at Sixfields Stadium in Northampton.