Northampton 1–2 Exeter City: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Exeter City

J. Guthrie 73'

W. Aimson 83'

L. Harris 20'

4/20/2024

League One · Round 45Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Northampton45%

×Draw23%

Exeter City32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.41

Northampton

1.72

Exeter City

1.41

Northampton creates 22% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.35

creates per match

0.93

1.89

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Northampton

1.35

Exeter City

0.93

allows per match

Northampton

1.89

Exeter City

2.09

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Northampton-0.18scores less

Exeter City+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

68%

Northampton or Exeter City

77%

Draw or Exeter City

55%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

24%

Exeter City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

82%

Northampton 2+ goals

51%

Northampton 3+ goals

25%

Exeter City 1+ goals

76%

Exeter City 2+ goals

41%

Exeter City 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

59%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.89 · 6 matches

Exeter City away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.09 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.35 + Exeter City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.72

Exeter City attack 0.93 + Northampton defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Northampton scores more

45%

level

23%

Exeter City scores more

32%

Northampton at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Guthrie

Northampton · D

8.0

Match Events

20'

L. Harris↳ D. Rankine

44'

Ryan Woods

45'

Jon Guthrie

46'

C. Diabate← J. Fitzwater

58'

B. Purrington← D. Rankine

64'

S. Hoskins← S. McWilliams

65'

R. Cole← J. Richards

71'

A. Odimayo← A. McGowan

71'

T. Springett← L. Appéré

73'

J. Guthrie↳ S. Sherring

81'

H. Kite← T. Carroll

81'

C. Watts← L. Harris

83'

W. Aimson

84'

W. Hondermarck← J. Sowerby

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonExeter

Overview

57%Possession43%

20Total Shots9

10Corners2

12Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots9

7On Target3

3Off Target2

10Blocked4

16Inside Box7

4Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

561Total Passes433

466Accurate Passes337

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1