Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Northampton vs Coventry — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Northampton
Northampton
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Coventry
Coventry
7/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Northampton28%
×Draw32%
Coventry40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
0.81
Coventry
1.02

Coventry creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Northampton
0.33
Coventry
1.71

allows per match

Northampton
0.33
Coventry
1.29

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par
Coventry+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
60%
Northampton or Coventry
68%
Draw or Coventry
72%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
9%
Coventry wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
56%
Northampton 2+ goals
19%
Northampton 3+ goals
5%
Coventry 1+ goals
64%
Coventry 2+ goals
27%
Coventry 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
42%
Coventry (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 0.33 + Coventry defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.81

Coventry attack 1.71 + Northampton defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Northampton scores more
28%
level
32%
Coventry scores more
40%

Coventry at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Northampton
Coventry
Colin Calderwood
Manager: Colin Calderwood
Frank Lampard
Manager: Frank Lampard

Friendlies Clubs: Northampton 0–0 Coventry

Northampton and Coventry drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 18, 2026.