Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Northampton vs Cambridge United — League One 2018

Northampton
Northampton
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cambridge United
Cambridge United
11/23/2024League OneLeague One · Round 17Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Northampton46%
×Draw27%
Cambridge United28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
1.42
Cambridge United
1.04

Northampton creates 37% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 92 away

creates per match

Northampton
1.05
Cambridge United
0.89

allows per match

Northampton
1.19
Cambridge United
1.78

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par
Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Cambridge United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
72%
Northampton or Cambridge United
73%
Draw or Cambridge United
54%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
22%
Cambridge United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
76%
Northampton 2+ goals
41%
Northampton 3+ goals
17%
Cambridge United 1+ goals
65%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
28%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
62%
Cambridge United (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.19 · 93 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.05 + Cambridge United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.42

Cambridge United attack 0.89 + Northampton defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Northampton scores more
46%
level
27%
Cambridge United scores more
28%

Northampton at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Northampton vs Cambridge United

Northampton and Cambridge United drew 0-0 in League One on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Sixfields Stadium in Northampton, East Midlands.