Northampton 2–0 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Cambridge United

G. Taft 45+1' (OG)

H. Smith 26'

10/26/2019

League Two · Round 16PTS Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Northampton41%

×Draw28%

Cambridge United31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.05

Northampton

1.27

Cambridge United

1.05

Northampton creates 21% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 68 away

1.48

creates per match

1.22

0.89

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Northampton

1.48

Cambridge United

1.22

allows per match

Northampton

0.89

Cambridge United

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

69%

Northampton or Cambridge United

72%

Draw or Cambridge United

59%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

19%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

72%

Northampton 2+ goals

36%

Northampton 3+ goals

14%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

65%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

28%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

57%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Cambridge United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cambridge United attack 1.22 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Northampton scores more

41%

level

28%

Cambridge United scores more

31%

Northampton at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

H. Smith

Northampton · F

7.6

Match Events

26'

H. Smith↳ N. Adams

45'

Sam Hoskins

45'

Reggie Lambe

45+1'

G. TaftOwn goal

51'

Alan McCormack

58'

B. Waters← P. Anderson

69'

C. Lines← A. McCormack

71'

H. Knibbs← E. Ward

73'

A. Williams← H. Smith

78'

A. Dallas← S. Smith

86'

L. O'Neil← M. Richards

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonCambridge

Overview

43%Possession57%

8Total Shots11

5Corners8

21Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots11

3On Target2

5Off Target5

0Blocked4

4Inside Box5

4Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

315Total Passes409

190Accurate Passes280

60%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

21Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0