Northampton 0–2 Burton Albion: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Burton Albion

R. Edwards 90+4'

M. Bostwick 77'

2/13/2021

League One · Round 29PTS Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Northampton36%

×Draw25%

Burton Albion39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchBurton Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.50

Northampton

1.42

Burton Albion

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.19

creates per match

1.30

1.69

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Northampton

1.19

Burton Albion

1.30

allows per match

Northampton

1.69

Burton Albion

1.64

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Northampton-0.08on par

Burton Albion-0.30scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Burton Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

61%

Northampton or Burton Albion

75%

Draw or Burton Albion

64%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

17%

Burton Albion wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

76%

Northampton 2+ goals

41%

Northampton 3+ goals

17%

Burton Albion 1+ goals

78%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

44%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

48%

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.69 · 9 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.64 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.19 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Burton Albion attack 1.30 + Northampton defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Northampton scores more

36%

level

25%

Burton Albion scores more

39%

Burton Albion at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

M. Bostwick

Burton Albion · D

7.7

Match Events

64'

Peter Kioso

68'

J. Powell← R. Broom

77'

M. Bostwick↳ S. Clare

82'

Sam Hoskins

82'

Sean Clare

82'

M. Harriman← S. McWilliams

83'

R. Edmondson← D. Rose

88'

D. Rowe← J. Smith

89'

M. Mancienne← J. Parker

90+4'

R. Edwards↳ H. Carter

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonBurton

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots8

0Corners5

13Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots8

2On Target4

6Off Target2

3Blocked2

5Inside Box6

6Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

402Total Passes338

272Accurate Passes195

68%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1