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Burton Albion vs Northampton — League One 2018

Burton Albion
Burton Albion
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Northampton
Northampton
12/26/2025League OneLeague One · Round 22Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Burton Albion46%
×Draw25%
Northampton28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burton Albion
1.53
Northampton
1.14

Burton Albion creates 34% more chances

Season form · 178 home / 94 away

creates per match

Burton Albion
1.28
Northampton
0.96

allows per match

Burton Albion
1.31
Northampton
1.78

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw
72%
Burton Albion or Northampton
75%
Draw or Northampton
54%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+
23%
Northampton wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals
78%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
45%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
20%
Northampton 1+ goals
68%
Northampton 2+ goals
32%
Northampton 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)
62%
Northampton (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.31 · 178 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.78 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Northampton defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.53

Northampton attack 0.96 + Burton Albion defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Burton Albion scores more
46%
level
25%
Northampton scores more
28%

Burton Albion at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burton Albion vs Northampton

Burton Albion beat Northampton 5-1 in League One on December 26, 2025.

The match was played at Pirelli Stadium in Burton upon Trent.