Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Northampton vs Bristol Rovers — League Two 2018

Northampton
Northampton
Preview
15:00
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
1/1/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 23Sixfields Stadium
Big match
46%
Northampton
model favours
46%26%27%

Bristol Rovers score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Northampton46%
×Draw26%
Bristol Rovers27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
1.45
Bristol Rovers
1.05

Northampton creates 38% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 59 away

creates per match

Northampton
1.48
Bristol Rovers
1.22

allows per match

Northampton
0.89
Bristol Rovers
1.42

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par
Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
73%
Northampton or Bristol Rovers
74%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
54%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
23%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
77%
Northampton 2+ goals
42%
Northampton 3+ goals
18%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
65%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
28%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
63%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.42 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.45

Bristol Rovers attack 1.22 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Northampton scores more
46%
level
26%
Bristol Rovers scores more
27%

Northampton at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Bristol Rovers’s matches
  • 73% of Bristol Rovers’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Northampton
Balanced
Bristol Rovers
Defensively solid
48%PossessionBiggest gap51%
65%Pass accuracy66%
11.9Shots11.5
—xG1.21
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
NorthamptonBristol Rovers

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

2
Northampton
1
Draws
5
Bristol Rovers
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 63%
2–10–13–11–20–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Northampton
WDLLL
Rovers
DDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northampton face Bristol Rovers (League Two)

League Two returns with Northampton hosting Bristol Rovers. Match starts January 1, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Northampton host Bristol Rovers at Sixfields Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.