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Northampton vs Bristol Rovers — League Two 2018

Northampton
Northampton
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
3/19/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 38Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Northampton44%
×Draw27%
Bristol Rovers29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
1.39
Bristol Rovers
1.08

Northampton creates 29% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 48 away

creates per match

Northampton
1.38
Bristol Rovers
1.29

allows per match

Northampton
0.88
Bristol Rovers
1.40

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par
Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
71%
Northampton or Bristol Rovers
73%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
56%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
21%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
75%
Northampton 2+ goals
40%
Northampton 3+ goals
16%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
66%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
29%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
60%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.88 · 90 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.40 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.38 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.39

Bristol Rovers attack 1.29 + Northampton defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Northampton scores more
44%
level
27%
Bristol Rovers scores more
29%

Northampton at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Northampton 0–1 Bristol Rovers

Bristol Rovers beat Northampton 1-0 in League Two on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Sixfields Stadium in Northampton, East Midlands.