Northampton 1–1 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bristol Rovers

S. Hoskins 78' (pen)

L. Leahy 19'

4/10/2021

League One · Round 41PTS Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Northampton43%

×Draw27%

Bristol Rovers29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.06

Northampton

1.35

Bristol Rovers

1.06

Northampton creates 27% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 131 away

1.11

creates per match

0.95

1.18

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Northampton

1.11

Bristol Rovers

0.95

allows per match

Northampton

1.18

Bristol Rovers

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

71%

Northampton or Bristol Rovers

73%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

57%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

20%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

74%

Northampton 2+ goals

39%

Northampton 3+ goals

15%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

65%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

29%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

60%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.18 · 102 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.11 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

Bristol Rovers attack 0.95 + Northampton defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Northampton scores more

43%

level

27%

Bristol Rovers scores more

29%

Northampton at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

L. Leahy

Bristol Rovers · D

7.7

Match Events

19'

L. Leahy

44'

Bryn Morris

63'

A. Jones← R. Edmondson

71'

C. Chukwuemeka← D. Rose

71'

J. Hare← Z. Westbrooke

76'

M. Marshall← B. Morris

78'

S. HoskinsPenalty

83'

Sam Hoskins

84'

J. Daly← B. Hanlan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonBristol

Overview

56%Possession44%

9Total Shots11

4Corners4

15Fouls23

Shots

9Total Shots11

2On Target4

5Off Target4

2Blocked3

6Inside Box8

3Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

322Total Passes253

178Accurate Passes124

55%Pass Accuracy49%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls23

2Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1