Northampton 3–1 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

AFC Wimbledon

C. McGeehan 59', 50'

C. McCarthy 10'

M. Browne 16'

12/19/2025

League One · Round 21Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Northampton41%

×Draw23%

AFC Wimbledon36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.54

Northampton

1.67

AFC Wimbledon

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.37

creates per match

1.10

1.98

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Northampton

1.37

AFC Wimbledon

1.10

allows per match

Northampton

1.98

AFC Wimbledon

1.96

+0.06on par

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Northampton+0.06on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

64%

Northampton or AFC Wimbledon

77%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

59%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

21%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

81%

Northampton 2+ goals

50%

Northampton 3+ goals

23%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

79%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

45%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

54%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.98 · 7 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.96 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.37 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.67

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.10 + Northampton defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Northampton scores more

41%

level

23%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

36%

Northampton at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

C. McGeehan

Northampton · F

9.2

Match Events

10'

C. McCarthy↳ D. Campbell

16'

M. Browne

26'

Jordan Thorniley

39'

M. Dyche← M. Forbes

46'

K. Swyer← D. Campbell

47'

Nathan Asiimwe

50'

C. McGeehan↳ E. Wheatley

59'

C. McGeehan↳ C. McCarthy

72'

M. Stevens← O. Bugiel

72'

R. Nkeng← N. Asiimwe

76'

Sam Hoskins

80'

J. Burroughs← T. Eaves

80'

E. List← S. Hoskins

80'

A. Hackford← M. Hippolyte

85'

Jake Reeves

90+1'

K. Edwards← E. Wheatley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonAFC

Overview

38%Possession62%

12Total Shots15

1.47Expected Goals (xG)2.54

4Corners1

10Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots15

3On Target6

4Off Target6

5Blocked3

8Inside Box9

4Outside Box6

Passing

38%Possession62%

241Total Passes414

132Accurate Passes310

55%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides4