Northampton 2–2 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

AFC Wimbledon

R. Korboa 31'

M. Warburton 19'

N. Guinness-Walker 23'

E. Chislett 1'

9/12/2020

League One · Round 1PTS Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Northampton41%

×Draw25%

AFC Wimbledon34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.38

Northampton

1.55

AFC Wimbledon

1.38

Northampton creates 12% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

1.19

creates per match

1.07

1.69

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Northampton

1.19

AFC Wimbledon

1.07

allows per match

Northampton

1.69

AFC Wimbledon

1.92

-0.08on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Northampton-0.08on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

66%

Northampton or AFC Wimbledon

75%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

59%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

21%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

79%

Northampton 2+ goals

46%

Northampton 3+ goals

20%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

75%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

40%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

55%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.69 · 9 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.19 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.55

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.07 + Northampton defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Northampton scores more

41%

level

25%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

34%

Northampton at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

J. Pigott

AFC Wimbledon · F

7.6

Match Events

1'

E. Chislett↳ J. Pigott

12'

Fraser Horsfall

19'

M. Warburton

23'

N. Guinness-Walker↳ J. Pigott

31'

R. Korboa

35'

Joe Pigott

63'

S. Hoskins← B. Ashley-Seal

75'

A. Hartigan← E. Chislett

84'

C. Chukwuemeka← M. Warburton

86'

A. Roscrow← R. Longman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonAFC

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots11

6Corners8

10Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots11

2On Target3

9Off Target5

3Blocked3

10Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

252Total Passes256

130Accurate Passes119

52%Pass Accuracy46%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2