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North Texas vs Philadelphia Union II — MLS Next Pro 2022

North Texas
North Texasadvanced
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
11/10/2024MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Championship - FinalToyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

North Texas45%
×Draw22%
Philadelphia Union II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Texas
1.98
Philadelphia Union II
1.70

North Texas creates 16% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 56 away

creates per match

North Texas
2.36
Philadelphia Union II
1.95

allows per match

North Texas
1.45
Philadelphia Union II
1.61

finishing

North Texas+0.00on par
Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Texas ↓

Philadelphia Union II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

North Texas or draw
66%
North Texas or Philadelphia Union II
78%
Draw or Philadelphia Union II
55%

Winning margin

North Texas wins by 2+
25%
Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

North Texas 1+ goals
86%
North Texas 2+ goals
59%
North Texas 3+ goals
31%
Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
82%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
51%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

North Texas (draw refunded)
57%
Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Texas at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.45 · 47 matches

Philadelphia Union II away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.61 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Texas attack 2.36 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.98

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.95 + North Texas defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

North Texas scores more
45%
level
22%
Philadelphia Union II scores more
34%

North Texas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "North Texas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: North Texas 3–2 Philadelphia Union II

North Texas beat Philadelphia Union II 3-2 in MLS Next Pro on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas.