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North Sunshine Eagles vs Melbourne Srbija — Victoria NPL 2 2026

North Sunshine Eagles
North Sunshine Eagles
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Melbourne Srbija
Melbourne Srbija
K. Elibol 79', 66', 50'
4/5/2025Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 9Larissa Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

North Sunshine Eagles49%
×Draw23%
Melbourne Srbija28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Sunshine Eagles
1.78
Melbourne Srbija
1.30

North Sunshine Eagles creates 37% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

North Sunshine Eagles
2.04
Melbourne Srbija
1.39

allows per match

North Sunshine Eagles
1.22
Melbourne Srbija
1.52

finishing

North Sunshine Eagles+0.00on par
Melbourne Srbija+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Sunshine Eagles ↓

Melbourne Srbija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

North Sunshine Eagles or draw
72%
North Sunshine Eagles or Melbourne Srbija
77%
Draw or Melbourne Srbija
51%

Winning margin

North Sunshine Eagles wins by 2+
26%
Melbourne Srbija wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

North Sunshine Eagles 1+ goals
83%
North Sunshine Eagles 2+ goals
53%
North Sunshine Eagles 3+ goals
26%
Melbourne Srbija 1+ goals
73%
Melbourne Srbija 2+ goals
37%
Melbourne Srbija 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

North Sunshine Eagles (draw refunded)
63%
Melbourne Srbija (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Sunshine Eagles at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

Melbourne Srbija away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Sunshine Eagles attack 2.04 + Melbourne Srbija defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.78

Melbourne Srbija attack 1.39 + North Sunshine Eagles defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

North Sunshine Eagles scores more
49%
level
23%
Melbourne Srbija scores more
28%

North Sunshine Eagles at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "North Sunshine Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
K. Elibol
66'
K. Elibol
79'
K. Elibol

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: North Sunshine Eagles vs Melbourne Srbija

North Sunshine Eagles beat Melbourne Srbija 3-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on April 5, 2025.

Goals: K. Elibol (50', 66', 79').

The match was played at Larissa Reserve in Melbourne.