North Sunshine Eagles 5–0 Kingston City

North Sunshine Eagles

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Kingston City

6/21/2025

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 19Larissa Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

North Sunshine Eagles52%

×Draw21%

Kingston City27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North Sunshine EaglesExpected goals in this matchKingston City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.48

North Sunshine Eagles

2.10

Kingston City

1.48

North Sunshine Eagles creates 42% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 57 away

2.04

creates per match

1.74

1.22

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

North Sunshine Eagles

2.04

Kingston City

1.74

allows per match

North Sunshine Eagles

1.22

Kingston City

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Sunshine Eagles+0.00on par

Kingston City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Sunshine Eagles ↓

Kingston City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

North Sunshine Eagles or draw

73%

North Sunshine Eagles or Kingston City

79%

Draw or Kingston City

48%

Winning margin

North Sunshine Eagles wins by 2+

30%

Kingston City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

North Sunshine Eagles 1+ goals

88%

North Sunshine Eagles 2+ goals

62%

North Sunshine Eagles 3+ goals

35%

Kingston City 1+ goals

77%

Kingston City 2+ goals

43%

Kingston City 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

North Sunshine Eagles (draw refunded)

66%

Kingston City (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Sunshine Eagles at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

Kingston City away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Sunshine Eagles attack 2.04 + Kingston City defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.10

Kingston City attack 1.74 + North Sunshine Eagles defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

North Sunshine Eagles scores more

52%

level

21%

Kingston City scores more

27%

North Sunshine Eagles at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "North Sunshine Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff