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North Sunshine Eagles vs Bentleigh Greens — Victoria NPL 2 2021

North Sunshine Eagles
North Sunshine Eagles
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bentleigh Greens
Bentleigh Greens
8/16/2025Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 25Larissa Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

North Sunshine Eagles47%
×Draw24%
Bentleigh Greens29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Sunshine Eagles
1.73
Bentleigh Greens
1.32

North Sunshine Eagles creates 31% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 26 away

creates per match

North Sunshine Eagles
2.04
Bentleigh Greens
1.42

allows per match

North Sunshine Eagles
1.22
Bentleigh Greens
1.42

finishing

North Sunshine Eagles+0.00on par
Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Sunshine Eagles ↓

Bentleigh Greens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

North Sunshine Eagles or draw
71%
North Sunshine Eagles or Bentleigh Greens
76%
Draw or Bentleigh Greens
53%

Winning margin

North Sunshine Eagles wins by 2+
25%
Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

North Sunshine Eagles 1+ goals
82%
North Sunshine Eagles 2+ goals
52%
North Sunshine Eagles 3+ goals
25%
Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals
73%
Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals
38%
Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

North Sunshine Eagles (draw refunded)
62%
Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Sunshine Eagles at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

Bentleigh Greens away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Sunshine Eagles attack 2.04 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.73

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.42 + North Sunshine Eagles defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

North Sunshine Eagles scores more
47%
level
24%
Bentleigh Greens scores more
29%

North Sunshine Eagles at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "North Sunshine Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: North Sunshine Eagles vs Bentleigh Greens

Bentleigh Greens beat North Sunshine Eagles 2-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on August 16, 2025.

The match was played at Larissa Reserve in Melbourne.