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North Shore Mariners vs Wollongong Wolves — New South Wales NPL 2026

North Shore Mariners
North Shore Mariners
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Wollongong Wolves
Wollongong Wolves
3/12/2022New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 2Sydney United Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

North Shore Mariners28%
×Draw21%
Wollongong Wolves50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Shore Mariners
1.50
Wollongong Wolves
2.06

Wollongong Wolves creates 37% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 94 away

creates per match

North Shore Mariners
1.48
Wollongong Wolves
1.68

allows per match

North Shore Mariners
2.43
Wollongong Wolves
1.53

finishing

North Shore Mariners+0.00on par
Wollongong Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Shore Mariners ↓

Wollongong Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

North Shore Mariners or draw
50%
North Shore Mariners or Wollongong Wolves
79%
Draw or Wollongong Wolves
72%

Winning margin

North Shore Mariners wins by 2+
13%
Wollongong Wolves wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

North Shore Mariners 1+ goals
78%
North Shore Mariners 2+ goals
44%
North Shore Mariners 3+ goals
19%
Wollongong Wolves 1+ goals
87%
Wollongong Wolves 2+ goals
61%
Wollongong Wolves 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

North Shore Mariners (draw refunded)
36%
Wollongong Wolves (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Shore Mariners at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.43 · 23 matches

Wollongong Wolves away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.53 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Shore Mariners attack 1.48 + Wollongong Wolves defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Wollongong Wolves attack 1.68 + North Shore Mariners defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

North Shore Mariners scores more
28%
level
21%
Wollongong Wolves scores more
50%

Wollongong Wolves at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wollongong Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: North Shore Mariners 0–4 Wollongong Wolves

Wollongong Wolves beat North Shore Mariners 4-0 in New South Wales NPL on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Sydney United Sports Center in Sydney.