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North Shore Mariners vs Sutherland Sharks — New South Wales NPL 2026

North Shore Mariners
North Shore Mariners
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sutherland Sharks
Sutherland Sharks
J. Drew 69'
L. Ahmed-Shaibu 48'
N. Sullivan 26'
5/7/2022New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 10Sydney United Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

North Shore Mariners33%
×Draw22%
Sutherland Sharks45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Shore Mariners
1.56
Sutherland Sharks
1.86

Sutherland Sharks creates 19% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 91 away

creates per match

North Shore Mariners
1.48
Sutherland Sharks
1.29

allows per match

North Shore Mariners
2.43
Sutherland Sharks
1.65

finishing

North Shore Mariners+0.00on par
Sutherland Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Shore Mariners ↓

Sutherland Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

North Shore Mariners or draw
55%
North Shore Mariners or Sutherland Sharks
78%
Draw or Sutherland Sharks
67%

Winning margin

North Shore Mariners wins by 2+
16%
Sutherland Sharks wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

North Shore Mariners 1+ goals
79%
North Shore Mariners 2+ goals
46%
North Shore Mariners 3+ goals
21%
Sutherland Sharks 1+ goals
84%
Sutherland Sharks 2+ goals
55%
Sutherland Sharks 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

North Shore Mariners (draw refunded)
42%
Sutherland Sharks (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Shore Mariners at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.43 · 23 matches

Sutherland Sharks away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.65 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Shore Mariners attack 1.48 + Sutherland Sharks defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sutherland Sharks attack 1.29 + North Shore Mariners defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

North Shore Mariners scores more
33%
level
22%
Sutherland Sharks scores more
45%

Sutherland Sharks at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sutherland Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
N. Sullivan
48'
L. Ahmed-Shaibu
69'
J. Drew
86'
A. Sparacino
86'
A. Sparacino

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: North Shore Mariners 1–2 Sutherland Sharks

Sutherland Sharks beat North Shore Mariners 2-1 in New South Wales NPL on May 7, 2022.

Goals: N. Sullivan (26'), L. Ahmed-Shaibu (48'), J. Drew (69').

The match was played at Sydney United Sports Center in Sydney.