North Shore Mariners vs Manly United — New South Wales NPL 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 23+ matches
North Shore Mariners34%
Manly United43%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Manly United creates 15% more chances
Season form · 23 home / 92 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes66
- No34
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
North Shore Mariners ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
North Shore Mariners at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.43 · 23 matches
Manly United away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.64 · 92 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
North Shore Mariners attack 1.48 + Manly United defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.56
Manly United attack 1.16 + North Shore Mariners defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.79
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Manly United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Manly United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
North Shore Mariners substitutes
Wollongong Wolves
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
Blacktown City
Sydney United
Marconi Stallions
Sydney Olympic
Mt Druitt Town
Sutherland SharksManly United
Rockdale City Suns
Sydney II
Hakoah Sydney CityIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
North Shore Mariners host Manly United on Saturday, 17 April 2021 at 05:00. The match is part of the New South Wales NPL 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: North Shore Mariners vs Manly United
Manly United beat North Shore Mariners 4-3 in New South Wales NPL on April 17, 2021.
Goals: S. Balderson (23'), T. Theph (51'), D. Pandurevic (63'), N. Ujdur (69'), J. Georgaklis (76'), S. Eve (88'), S. Kambayashi (90+4').
The match was played at Sydney United Sports Center in Sydney.