Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

North Shore Mariners vs Blacktown City — New South Wales NPL 2026

North Shore Mariners
North Shore Mariners
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Blacktown City
Blacktown City
4/9/2022New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 6Sydney United Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

North Shore Mariners27%
×Draw21%
Blacktown City51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Shore Mariners
1.46
Blacktown City
2.05

Blacktown City creates 40% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 96 away

creates per match

North Shore Mariners
1.48
Blacktown City
1.67

allows per match

North Shore Mariners
2.43
Blacktown City
1.43

finishing

North Shore Mariners+0.00on par
Blacktown City+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Shore Mariners ↓

Blacktown City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

North Shore Mariners or draw
49%
North Shore Mariners or Blacktown City
79%
Draw or Blacktown City
73%

Winning margin

North Shore Mariners wins by 2+
12%
Blacktown City wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

North Shore Mariners 1+ goals
77%
North Shore Mariners 2+ goals
43%
North Shore Mariners 3+ goals
18%
Blacktown City 1+ goals
87%
Blacktown City 2+ goals
61%
Blacktown City 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

North Shore Mariners (draw refunded)
35%
Blacktown City (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Shore Mariners at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.43 · 23 matches

Blacktown City away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.43 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Shore Mariners attack 1.48 + Blacktown City defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Blacktown City attack 1.67 + North Shore Mariners defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

North Shore Mariners scores more
27%
level
21%
Blacktown City scores more
51%

Blacktown City at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Blacktown City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: North Shore Mariners 1–3 Blacktown City

Blacktown City beat North Shore Mariners 3-1 in New South Wales NPL on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Sydney United Sports Center in Sydney.