North Shore Mariners 1–1 APIA Leichhardt Tigers

North Shore Mariners

FT

1 – 1

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

E. Peters 79'

C. Payne 41'

2/29/2020

New South Wales NPL · Round 1Lambert Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

North Shore Mariners27%

×Draw21%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North Shore MarinersExpected goals in this matchAPIA Leichhardt Tigers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

2.19

North Shore Mariners

1.54

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

2.19

APIA Leichhardt Tigers creates 42% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 95 away

1.48

creates per match

1.95

2.43

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

North Shore Mariners

1.48

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

1.95

allows per match

North Shore Mariners

2.43

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Shore Mariners+0.00on par

APIA Leichhardt Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Shore Mariners ↓

APIA Leichhardt Tigers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

North Shore Mariners or draw

48%

North Shore Mariners or APIA Leichhardt Tigers

79%

Draw or APIA Leichhardt Tigers

73%

Winning margin

North Shore Mariners wins by 2+

12%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

North Shore Mariners 1+ goals

79%

North Shore Mariners 2+ goals

45%

North Shore Mariners 3+ goals

20%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 1+ goals

89%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 2+ goals

64%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

North Shore Mariners (draw refunded)

34%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Shore Mariners at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.43 · 23 matches

APIA Leichhardt Tigers away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.59 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Shore Mariners attack 1.48 + APIA Leichhardt Tigers defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

APIA Leichhardt Tigers attack 1.95 + North Shore Mariners defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

North Shore Mariners scores more

27%

level

21%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers scores more

52%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "APIA Leichhardt Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

C. Payne

79'

E. Peters

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff