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APIA Leichhardt Tigers vs North Shore Mariners — New South Wales NPL 2026

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
CANC
07:15
North Shore Mariners
North Shore Mariners
7/17/2021New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 21Lambert Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

APIA Leichhardt Tigers53%
×Draw22%
North Shore Mariners25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
1.98
North Shore Mariners
1.31

APIA Leichhardt Tigers creates 51% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 30 away

creates per match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
2.06
North Shore Mariners
1.50

allows per match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
1.12
North Shore Mariners
1.90

finishing

APIA Leichhardt Tigers+0.00on par
North Shore Mariners+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APIA Leichhardt Tigers ↓

North Shore Mariners →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

APIA Leichhardt Tigers or draw
75%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers or North Shore Mariners
78%
Draw or North Shore Mariners
47%

Winning margin

APIA Leichhardt Tigers wins by 2+
31%
North Shore Mariners wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 1+ goals
86%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 2+ goals
59%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3+ goals
31%
North Shore Mariners 1+ goals
73%
North Shore Mariners 2+ goals
38%
North Shore Mariners 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

APIA Leichhardt Tigers (draw refunded)
68%
North Shore Mariners (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.12 · 98 matches

North Shore Mariners away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers attack 2.06 + North Shore Mariners defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.98

North Shore Mariners attack 1.50 + APIA Leichhardt Tigers defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

APIA Leichhardt Tigers scores more
53%
level
22%
North Shore Mariners scores more
25%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "APIA Leichhardt Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

APIA Leichhardt Tigers face North Shore Mariners (New South Wales NPL)

New South Wales NPL returns with APIA Leichhardt Tigers hosting North Shore Mariners. Match starts July 17, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

APIA Leichhardt Tigers host North Shore Mariners at Lambert Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.