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North Macedonia W vs Moldova W — Friendlies Women 2026

North Macedonia W
North Macedonia W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Moldova W
Moldova W
I. Colnic 57'
10/28/2024Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Stadion Septemvri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

North Macedonia W44%
×Draw25%
Moldova W31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Macedonia W
1.58
Moldova W
1.28

North Macedonia W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

North Macedonia W
0.90
Moldova W
0.45

allows per match

North Macedonia W
2.10
Moldova W
2.27

finishing

North Macedonia W+0.00on par
Moldova W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Macedonia W ↓

Moldova W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

North Macedonia W or draw
69%
North Macedonia W or Moldova W
75%
Draw or Moldova W
56%

Winning margin

North Macedonia W wins by 2+
22%
Moldova W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

North Macedonia W 1+ goals
79%
North Macedonia W 2+ goals
47%
North Macedonia W 3+ goals
21%
Moldova W 1+ goals
72%
Moldova W 2+ goals
37%
Moldova W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

North Macedonia W (draw refunded)
59%
Moldova W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Macedonia W at home — creates 0.90, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

Moldova W away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Macedonia W attack 0.90 + Moldova W defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.58

Moldova W attack 0.45 + North Macedonia W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

North Macedonia W scores more
44%
level
25%
Moldova W scores more
31%

North Macedonia W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "North Macedonia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
I. Colnic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: North Macedonia W 0–1 Moldova W

Moldova W beat North Macedonia W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on October 28, 2024.

Goals: I. Colnic (57').

The match was played at Stadion Septemvri in Razlog.