North Macedonia W 3–1 Kosovo W: Result & Stats

North Macedonia W

FT

3 – 1

Kosovo W

6/24/2022

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 2Trening centar Petar Miloševski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

North Macedonia W23%

×Draw23%

Kosovo W53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North Macedonia WExpected goals in this matchKosovo W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.77

North Macedonia W

1.09

Kosovo W

1.77

Kosovo W creates 62% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

0.90

creates per match

1.43

2.10

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

North Macedonia W

0.90

Kosovo W

1.43

allows per match

North Macedonia W

2.10

Kosovo W

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Macedonia W+0.00on par

Kosovo W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Macedonia W ↓

Kosovo W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

North Macedonia W or draw

47%

North Macedonia W or Kosovo W

77%

Draw or Kosovo W

77%

Winning margin

North Macedonia W wins by 2+

9%

Kosovo W wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

North Macedonia W 1+ goals

66%

North Macedonia W 2+ goals

30%

North Macedonia W 3+ goals

10%

Kosovo W 1+ goals

83%

Kosovo W 2+ goals

53%

Kosovo W 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

North Macedonia W (draw refunded)

31%

Kosovo W (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Macedonia W at home — creates 0.90, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

Kosovo W away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Macedonia W attack 0.90 + Kosovo W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Kosovo W attack 1.43 + North Macedonia W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

North Macedonia W scores more

23%

level

23%

Kosovo W scores more

53%

Kosovo W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kosovo W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff