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North Macedonia U19 W vs Russia U19 W — Friendlies Women 2026

North Macedonia U19 W
North Macedonia U19 W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Russia U19 W
Russia U19 W
N. Nakova 50'
J. Camorina 15'
E. Sergeeva 13'
10/24/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

North Macedonia U19 W9%
×Draw13%
Russia U19 W78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Macedonia U19 W
0.88
Russia U19 W
2.90

Russia U19 W creates 230% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

North Macedonia U19 W
0.75
Russia U19 W
2.29

allows per match

North Macedonia U19 W
3.50
Russia U19 W
1.00

finishing

North Macedonia U19 W+0.00on par
Russia U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Macedonia U19 W ↓

Russia U19 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–210%
0–310%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

North Macedonia U19 W or draw
22%
North Macedonia U19 W or Russia U19 W
87%
Draw or Russia U19 W
91%

Winning margin

North Macedonia U19 W wins by 2+
3%
Russia U19 W wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

North Macedonia U19 W 1+ goals
59%
North Macedonia U19 W 2+ goals
22%
North Macedonia U19 W 3+ goals
6%
Russia U19 W 1+ goals
94%
Russia U19 W 2+ goals
78%
Russia U19 W 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

North Macedonia U19 W (draw refunded)
10%
Russia U19 W (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Macedonia U19 W at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Russia U19 W away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Macedonia U19 W attack 0.75 + Russia U19 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Russia U19 W attack 2.29 + North Macedonia U19 W defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

North Macedonia U19 W scores more
9%
level
13%
Russia U19 W scores more
78%

Russia U19 W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Russia U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
E. Sergeeva
15'
J. Camorina
50'
N. Nakova

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: North Macedonia U19 W 1–2 Russia U19 W

Russia U19 W beat North Macedonia U19 W 2-1 in Friendlies Women on October 24, 2025.

Goals: E. Sergeeva (13'), J. Camorina (15'), N. Nakova (50').