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North Macedonia U19 vs Ukraine U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

North Macedonia U19
North Macedonia U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ukraine U19
Ukraine U19
3/20/2024UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 2Trening centar Petar Miloševski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

North Macedonia U1923%
×Draw25%
Ukraine U1952%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Macedonia U19
0.94
Ukraine U19
1.57

Ukraine U19 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

North Macedonia U19
0.71
Ukraine U19
2.00

allows per match

North Macedonia U19
1.14
Ukraine U19
1.18

finishing

North Macedonia U19+0.00on par
Ukraine U19+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Macedonia U19 ↓

Ukraine U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

North Macedonia U19 or draw
48%
North Macedonia U19 or Ukraine U19
75%
Draw or Ukraine U19
77%

Winning margin

North Macedonia U19 wins by 2+
8%
Ukraine U19 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

North Macedonia U19 1+ goals
61%
North Macedonia U19 2+ goals
24%
North Macedonia U19 3+ goals
7%
Ukraine U19 1+ goals
79%
Ukraine U19 2+ goals
46%
Ukraine U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

North Macedonia U19 (draw refunded)
30%
Ukraine U19 (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Macedonia U19 at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Ukraine U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Macedonia U19 attack 0.71 + Ukraine U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.94

Ukraine U19 attack 2.00 + North Macedonia U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

North Macedonia U19 scores more
23%
level
25%
Ukraine U19 scores more
52%

Ukraine U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ukraine U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: North Macedonia U19 vs Ukraine U19

Ukraine U19 beat North Macedonia U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 20, 2024.

The match was played at Trening centar Petar Miloševski in Skopje.