North Macedonia U19 1–2 Serbia U19: Result & Stats

North Macedonia U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Serbia U19

B. Feta 78'

O. Ajdar 65', 56' (pen)

11/10/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

North Macedonia U1930%

×Draw26%

Serbia U1944%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North Macedonia U19Expected goals in this matchSerbia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.46

North Macedonia U19

1.14

Serbia U19

1.46

Serbia U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

0.71

creates per match

1.79

1.14

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

North Macedonia U19

0.71

Serbia U19

1.79

allows per match

North Macedonia U19

1.14

Serbia U19

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Macedonia U19+0.00on par

Serbia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Macedonia U19 ↓

Serbia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

North Macedonia U19 or draw

56%

North Macedonia U19 or Serbia U19

74%

Draw or Serbia U19

70%

Winning margin

North Macedonia U19 wins by 2+

12%

Serbia U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

North Macedonia U19 1+ goals

68%

North Macedonia U19 2+ goals

32%

North Macedonia U19 3+ goals

11%

Serbia U19 1+ goals

77%

Serbia U19 2+ goals

43%

Serbia U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

North Macedonia U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Serbia U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Macedonia U19 at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Serbia U19 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Macedonia U19 attack 0.71 + Serbia U19 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.14

Serbia U19 attack 1.79 + North Macedonia U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

North Macedonia U19 scores more

30%

level

26%

Serbia U19 scores more

44%

Serbia U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Serbia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

L. Kudev← E. Saitoski

56'

O. AjdarPenalty

61'

B. Gudjufi← V. Krstevski

65'

S. Baždar← N. Motika

65'

O. Ajdar

66'

S. Hrstić← M. Lazetić

71'

M. Talakov← L. Kudev

78'

B. Feta

81'

Z. Šaini← D. Jahiji

87'

M. Gluščević← N. Mituljikić

88'

U. Kabić← O. Ajdar

90+3'

M. Đorđević← S. Despotovski

North

Serbia

12

Lukić

5

▼

14

10

15

17

▼

Mituljiki

4

Petković

11

⚽2

▼

Ajdar

20

▼

Motika

9

▼

3

1

3

17

4

10

18

▼

Krstevski

5

Ramadani

7

⚽

Feta

9

Elezi

11

▼

Saitoski

8

▼

Jahiji

Manager: D. Beari

46'▲L. Kudev←▼E. Saitoski

61'▲B. Gudjufi←▼V. Krstevski

71'▲M. Talakov←▼L. Kudev

81'▲Z. Šaini←▼D. Jahiji

North Macedonia U19 substitutes

2Kudev20Gudjufi19Talakov6Šaini14Ali13Bosheski16Hristovski12Jovčev15Angelov

Manager: D. Branković

65'▲S. Baždar←▼N. Motika

66'▲S. Hrstić←▼M. Lazetić

87'▲M. Gluščević←▼N. Mituljikić

88'▲U. Kabić←▼O. Ajdar

90+3'▲M. Đorđević←▼S. Despotovski

Serbia U19 substitutes

22Baždar19Hrstić7Gluščević18Kabić6Đorđević16Kovačević1Ćopić

Match Recap: North Macedonia U19 vs Serbia U19

Serbia U19 beat North Macedonia U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 10, 2021.

Goals: O. Ajdar (56' pen, 65'), B. Feta (78').

The match was played at Elbasan Arena in Elbasan.

North Macedonia U19 vs Serbia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: North Macedonia U19 vs Serbia U19