North Macedonia U19 2–0 Poland U19: Result & Stats

North Macedonia U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Poland U19

M. Elmas 70'

N. Velichkovski 12'

10/11/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

North Macedonia U1928%

×Draw29%

Poland U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North Macedonia U19Expected goals in this matchPoland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.25

North Macedonia U19

0.94

Poland U19

1.25

Poland U19 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

0.71

creates per match

1.36

1.14

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

North Macedonia U19

0.71

Poland U19

1.36

allows per match

North Macedonia U19

1.14

Poland U19

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Macedonia U19+0.00on par

Poland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Macedonia U19 ↓

Poland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

North Macedonia U19 or draw

57%

North Macedonia U19 or Poland U19

71%

Draw or Poland U19

72%

Winning margin

North Macedonia U19 wins by 2+

10%

Poland U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

North Macedonia U19 1+ goals

61%

North Macedonia U19 2+ goals

24%

North Macedonia U19 3+ goals

7%

Poland U19 1+ goals

71%

Poland U19 2+ goals

36%

Poland U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

North Macedonia U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Poland U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Macedonia U19 at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Poland U19 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Macedonia U19 attack 0.71 + Poland U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.94

Poland U19 attack 1.36 + North Macedonia U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

North Macedonia U19 scores more

28%

level

29%

Poland U19 scores more

43%

Poland U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Poland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

14'

40'

45'

46'

61'

T. Nikolovski← F. Fetai

62'

J. Lewicki← F. Luberecki

62'

K. Śmiglewski← M. Kowalski

70'

M. Elmas

78'

A. Arizankoski← N. Velichkovski

78'

D. Danev← M. Elmas

78'

K. Terlecki← D. Drachal

78'

S. Bartlewicz← D. Stalmach

90'

A. Meljichi← A. Bamijoko

90'

A. Nuhija← A. Zendelovski

North

Poland

1

6

23

5

18

19

▼

Luberecki

11

▼

Tkacz

8

▼

Stalmach

16

Nsangou

10

▼

Drachal

9

▼

Kowalski

6

Markovski

5

Stojilevs

4

▼

Bamijoko

8

▼

Zendelovs

7

⚽

▼

Elmas

18

▼

Fetai

10

Gjorgievs

9

Nazifi

19

⚽

▼

Velichkov

1

Dzhekov

3

Dzhekov

Manager: N. Sabani

61'▲T. Nikolovski←▼F. Fetai

78'▲A. Arizankoski←▼N. Velichkovski

78'▲D. Danev←▼M. Elmas

90'▲A. Meljichi←▼A. Bamijoko

90'▲A. Nuhija←▼A. Zendelovski

North Macedonia U19 substitutes

16Nikolovski14Arizankoski11Danev15Meljichi20Nuhija2Adili12Stojanovikj17Kaba13Muhtari

Manager: W. Kobeszko

46'▲M. Dziuba←▼D. Tkacz

62'▲J. Lewicki←▼F. Luberecki

62'▲K. Śmiglewski←▼M. Kowalski

78'▲K. Terlecki←▼D. Drachal

78'▲S. Bartlewicz←▼D. Stalmach

Poland U19 substitutes

15Dziuba3Lewicki21Śmiglewski17Terlecki20Bartlewicz7Kalemba12Mendes-Dudziński2Barczak4Tomaszewski

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: North Macedonia U19 2–0 Poland U19

North Macedonia U19 beat Poland U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 11, 2023.

Goals: N. Velichkovski (12'), M. Elmas (70').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego in Toruń.

North Macedonia U19 vs Poland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: North Macedonia U19 2–0 Poland U19