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North Macedonia U19 vs Bulgaria U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

North Macedonia U19
North Macedonia U19
CANC
14:00
Bulgaria U19
Bulgaria U19
9/8/2020UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Elite Round - 5Campo Municipal El Collao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

North Macedonia U1929%
×Draw32%
Bulgaria U1938%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Macedonia U19
0.83
Bulgaria U19
1.00

Bulgaria U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

North Macedonia U19
0.67
Bulgaria U19
1.00

allows per match

North Macedonia U19
1.00
Bulgaria U19
1.00

finishing

North Macedonia U19+0.00on par
Bulgaria U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Macedonia U19 ↓

Bulgaria U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

North Macedonia U19 or draw
62%
North Macedonia U19 or Bulgaria U19
68%
Draw or Bulgaria U19
71%

Winning margin

North Macedonia U19 wins by 2+
10%
Bulgaria U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

North Macedonia U19 1+ goals
56%
North Macedonia U19 2+ goals
20%
North Macedonia U19 3+ goals
5%
Bulgaria U19 1+ goals
63%
Bulgaria U19 2+ goals
26%
Bulgaria U19 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

North Macedonia U19 (draw refunded)
43%
Bulgaria U19 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Macedonia U19 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Bulgaria U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Macedonia U19 attack 0.67 + Bulgaria U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Bulgaria U19 attack 1.00 + North Macedonia U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

North Macedonia U19 scores more
29%
level
32%
Bulgaria U19 scores more
38%

Bulgaria U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bulgaria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

North Macedonia U19 vs Bulgaria U19 — Match Preview

North Macedonia U19 face Bulgaria U19 on September 8, 2020 in this UEFA U19 Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

North Macedonia U19 host Bulgaria U19 at Campo Municipal El Collao.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.