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North Macedonia U18 vs Montenegro U18 — Friendlies 2026

North Macedonia U18
North Macedonia U18
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Montenegro U18
Montenegro U18
I. Markovski 49'
N. Fatic 21' (OG)
A. Vukoje 27'
12/12/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

North Macedonia U1848%
×Draw27%
Montenegro U1826%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Macedonia U18
1.43
Montenegro U18
0.97

North Macedonia U18 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

North Macedonia U18
1.60
Montenegro U18
0.75

allows per match

North Macedonia U18
1.20
Montenegro U18
1.25

finishing

North Macedonia U18+0.00on par
Montenegro U18+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Macedonia U18 ↓

Montenegro U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

North Macedonia U18 or draw
74%
North Macedonia U18 or Montenegro U18
73%
Draw or Montenegro U18
52%

Winning margin

North Macedonia U18 wins by 2+
23%
Montenegro U18 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

North Macedonia U18 1+ goals
76%
North Macedonia U18 2+ goals
42%
North Macedonia U18 3+ goals
17%
Montenegro U18 1+ goals
62%
Montenegro U18 2+ goals
25%
Montenegro U18 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

North Macedonia U18 (draw refunded)
65%
Montenegro U18 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Macedonia U18 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Montenegro U18 away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Macedonia U18 attack 1.60 + Montenegro U18 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Montenegro U18 attack 0.75 + North Macedonia U18 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

North Macedonia U18 scores more
48%
level
27%
Montenegro U18 scores more
26%

North Macedonia U18 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "North Macedonia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
N. FaticOwn goal
27'
A. Vukoje
49'
I. Markovski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: North Macedonia U18 vs Montenegro U18

North Macedonia U18 beat Montenegro U18 2-1 in Friendlies on December 12, 2025.

Goals: N. Fatic (21' o.g.), A. Vukoje (27'), I. Markovski (49').