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North Macedonia U18 vs Hungary U18 — Friendlies 2026

North Macedonia U18
North Macedonia U18
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Hungary U18
Hungary U18
9/17/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

North Macedonia U1843%
×Draw23%
Hungary U1835%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Macedonia U18
1.80
Hungary U18
1.60

North Macedonia U18 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

North Macedonia U18
1.60
Hungary U18
2.00

allows per match

North Macedonia U18
1.20
Hungary U18
2.00

finishing

North Macedonia U18+0.00on par
Hungary U18+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Macedonia U18 ↓

Hungary U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

North Macedonia U18 or draw
65%
North Macedonia U18 or Hungary U18
77%
Draw or Hungary U18
57%

Winning margin

North Macedonia U18 wins by 2+
23%
Hungary U18 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

North Macedonia U18 1+ goals
83%
North Macedonia U18 2+ goals
54%
North Macedonia U18 3+ goals
27%
Hungary U18 1+ goals
80%
Hungary U18 2+ goals
47%
Hungary U18 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

North Macedonia U18 (draw refunded)
55%
Hungary U18 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Macedonia U18 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Hungary U18 away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Macedonia U18 attack 1.60 + Hungary U18 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Hungary U18 attack 2.00 + North Macedonia U18 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

North Macedonia U18 scores more
43%
level
23%
Hungary U18 scores more
35%

North Macedonia U18 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "North Macedonia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: North Macedonia U18 2–2 Hungary U18

North Macedonia U18 and Hungary U18 drew 2-2 in Friendlies on September 17, 2025.