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North Macedonia U17 vs Slovakia U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

North Macedonia U17
North Macedonia U17
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Slovakia U17
Slovakia U17
10/25/2023UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4MFA Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

North Macedonia U1723%
×Draw24%
Slovakia U1753%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Macedonia U17
1.07
Slovakia U17
1.75

Slovakia U17 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

creates per match

North Macedonia U17
0.50
Slovakia U17
1.00

allows per match

North Macedonia U17
2.50
Slovakia U17
1.64

finishing

North Macedonia U17+0.00on par
Slovakia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Macedonia U17 ↓

Slovakia U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

North Macedonia U17 or draw
47%
North Macedonia U17 or Slovakia U17
76%
Draw or Slovakia U17
77%

Winning margin

North Macedonia U17 wins by 2+
9%
Slovakia U17 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

North Macedonia U17 1+ goals
66%
North Macedonia U17 2+ goals
29%
North Macedonia U17 3+ goals
9%
Slovakia U17 1+ goals
83%
Slovakia U17 2+ goals
52%
Slovakia U17 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

North Macedonia U17 (draw refunded)
30%
Slovakia U17 (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Macedonia U17 at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

Slovakia U17 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Macedonia U17 attack 0.50 + Slovakia U17 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.07

Slovakia U17 attack 1.00 + North Macedonia U17 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

North Macedonia U17 scores more
23%
level
24%
Slovakia U17 scores more
53%

Slovakia U17 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Slovakia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: North Macedonia U17 vs Slovakia U17

Slovakia U17 beat North Macedonia U17 4-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 25, 2023.

The match was played at MFA Centenary Stadium in Ta'Qali.