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North Macedonia U17 vs Romania U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

North Macedonia U17
North Macedonia U17
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Romania U17
Romania U17
3/25/2025UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Round 2 - League B - 3Broadwood Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

North Macedonia U1713%
×Draw18%
Romania U1769%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Macedonia U17
0.85
Romania U17
2.25

Romania U17 creates 165% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

creates per match

North Macedonia U17
0.50
Romania U17
2.00

allows per match

North Macedonia U17
2.50
Romania U17
1.20

finishing

North Macedonia U17+0.00on par
Romania U17+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Macedonia U17 ↓

Romania U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

North Macedonia U17 or draw
31%
North Macedonia U17 or Romania U17
82%
Draw or Romania U17
87%

Winning margin

North Macedonia U17 wins by 2+
4%
Romania U17 wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

North Macedonia U17 1+ goals
57%
North Macedonia U17 2+ goals
21%
North Macedonia U17 3+ goals
5%
Romania U17 1+ goals
89%
Romania U17 2+ goals
65%
Romania U17 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

North Macedonia U17 (draw refunded)
16%
Romania U17 (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Macedonia U17 at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

Romania U17 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Macedonia U17 attack 0.50 + Romania U17 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.85

Romania U17 attack 2.00 + North Macedonia U17 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

North Macedonia U17 scores more
13%
level
18%
Romania U17 scores more
69%

Romania U17 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Romania U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: North Macedonia U17 0–3 Romania U17

Romania U17 beat North Macedonia U17 3-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on March 25, 2025.

The match was played at Broadwood Stadium in Cumbernauld.