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North Macedonia U17 vs Poland U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

North Macedonia U17
North Macedonia U17
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Poland U17
Poland U17
10/7/2021UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2Mardyke Leisure Centre Grass Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

North Macedonia U1713%
×Draw20%
Poland U1768%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Macedonia U17
0.75
Poland U17
2.06

Poland U17 creates 175% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

creates per match

North Macedonia U17
0.50
Poland U17
1.62

allows per match

North Macedonia U17
2.50
Poland U17
1.00

finishing

North Macedonia U17+0.00on par
Poland U17+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Macedonia U17 ↓

Poland U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–213%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

North Macedonia U17 or draw
32%
North Macedonia U17 or Poland U17
80%
Draw or Poland U17
87%

Winning margin

North Macedonia U17 wins by 2+
4%
Poland U17 wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

North Macedonia U17 1+ goals
53%
North Macedonia U17 2+ goals
17%
North Macedonia U17 3+ goals
4%
Poland U17 1+ goals
87%
Poland U17 2+ goals
61%
Poland U17 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

North Macedonia U17 (draw refunded)
16%
Poland U17 (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Macedonia U17 at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

Poland U17 away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Macedonia U17 attack 0.50 + Poland U17 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Poland U17 attack 1.62 + North Macedonia U17 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

North Macedonia U17 scores more
13%
level
20%
Poland U17 scores more
68%

Poland U17 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Poland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: North Macedonia U17 0–0 Poland U17

North Macedonia U17 and Poland U17 drew 0-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 7, 2021.

The match was played at Mardyke Leisure Centre Grass Field in Cork.