North Geelong Warriors 1–5 Pascoe Vale

North Geelong Warriors

FT

1 – 5

Pascoe Vale

5/8/2021

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 7Elcho Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

North Geelong Warriors39%

×Draw23%

Pascoe Vale38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North Geelong WarriorsExpected goals in this matchPascoe Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.70

North Geelong Warriors

1.72

Pascoe Vale

1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 31 away

1.85

creates per match

1.74

1.66

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

North Geelong Warriors

1.85

Pascoe Vale

1.74

allows per match

North Geelong Warriors

1.66

Pascoe Vale

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Geelong Warriors+0.00on par

Pascoe Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Geelong Warriors ↓

Pascoe Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

North Geelong Warriors or draw

62%

North Geelong Warriors or Pascoe Vale

77%

Draw or Pascoe Vale

61%

Winning margin

North Geelong Warriors wins by 2+

20%

Pascoe Vale wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

North Geelong Warriors 1+ goals

82%

North Geelong Warriors 2+ goals

51%

North Geelong Warriors 3+ goals

25%

Pascoe Vale 1+ goals

82%

Pascoe Vale 2+ goals

51%

Pascoe Vale 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

North Geelong Warriors (draw refunded)

51%

Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Geelong Warriors at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.66 · 41 matches

Pascoe Vale away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Geelong Warriors attack 1.85 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.72

Pascoe Vale attack 1.74 + North Geelong Warriors defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

North Geelong Warriors scores more

39%

level

23%

Pascoe Vale scores more

38%

North Geelong Warriors at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "North Geelong Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff