North Geelong Warriors 1–0 Melbourne Knights

North Geelong Warriors

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Melbourne Knights

P. Wall 35'

2/14/2026

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

North Geelong Warriors37%

×Draw24%

Melbourne Knights39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North Geelong WarriorsExpected goals in this matchMelbourne Knights

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.53

North Geelong Warriors

1.48

Melbourne Knights

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 10 away

1.85

creates per match

1.40

1.66

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

North Geelong Warriors

1.85

Melbourne Knights

1.40

allows per match

North Geelong Warriors

1.66

Melbourne Knights

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Geelong Warriors+0.00on par

Melbourne Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Geelong Warriors ↓

Melbourne Knights →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

North Geelong Warriors or draw

61%

North Geelong Warriors or Melbourne Knights

76%

Draw or Melbourne Knights

63%

Winning margin

North Geelong Warriors wins by 2+

17%

Melbourne Knights wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

North Geelong Warriors 1+ goals

77%

North Geelong Warriors 2+ goals

43%

North Geelong Warriors 3+ goals

19%

Melbourne Knights 1+ goals

78%

Melbourne Knights 2+ goals

45%

Melbourne Knights 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

North Geelong Warriors (draw refunded)

49%

Melbourne Knights (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Geelong Warriors at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.66 · 41 matches

Melbourne Knights away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Geelong Warriors attack 1.85 + Melbourne Knights defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.48

Melbourne Knights attack 1.40 + North Geelong Warriors defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

North Geelong Warriors scores more

37%

level

24%

Melbourne Knights scores more

39%

Melbourne Knights at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Melbourne Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

P. Wall

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff