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North Geelong Warriors vs Brunswick Juventus FC — Victoria NPL 2 2026

North Geelong Warriors
North Geelong Warriors
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 4
Brunswick Juventus FC
Brunswick Juventus FC
S. Nakamura 76'
A. Chapman 20'
P. Wall 18'
L. Lovic 42'
S. Ellis 28'
L. Pullen 24', 9'
4/18/2026Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

North Geelong Warriors39%
×Draw23%
Brunswick Juventus FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Geelong Warriors
1.63
Brunswick Juventus FC
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 10 away

creates per match

North Geelong Warriors
1.85
Brunswick Juventus FC
1.50

allows per match

North Geelong Warriors
1.66
Brunswick Juventus FC
1.40

finishing

North Geelong Warriors+0.00on par
Brunswick Juventus FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Geelong Warriors ↓

Brunswick Juventus FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

North Geelong Warriors or draw
63%
North Geelong Warriors or Brunswick Juventus FC
77%
Draw or Brunswick Juventus FC
61%

Winning margin

North Geelong Warriors wins by 2+
20%
Brunswick Juventus FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

North Geelong Warriors 1+ goals
80%
North Geelong Warriors 2+ goals
48%
North Geelong Warriors 3+ goals
22%
Brunswick Juventus FC 1+ goals
79%
Brunswick Juventus FC 2+ goals
47%
Brunswick Juventus FC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

North Geelong Warriors (draw refunded)
51%
Brunswick Juventus FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Geelong Warriors at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.66 · 41 matches

Brunswick Juventus FC away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Geelong Warriors attack 1.85 + Brunswick Juventus FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.63

Brunswick Juventus FC attack 1.50 + North Geelong Warriors defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

North Geelong Warriors scores more
39%
level
23%
Brunswick Juventus FC scores more
37%

North Geelong Warriors at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "North Geelong Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
L. Pullen
18'
P. Wall
20'
A. Chapman
24'
L. Pullen
28'
S. Ellis
42'
L. Lovic
76'
S. Nakamura

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: North Geelong Warriors vs Brunswick Juventus FC

Brunswick Juventus FC beat North Geelong Warriors 4-3 in Victoria NPL 2 on April 18, 2026.

Goals: L. Pullen (9', 24'), P. Wall (18'), A. Chapman (20'), S. Ellis (28'), L. Lovic (42'), S. Nakamura (76').