North Esporte 1–1 Uberlandia: Result & Stats

North Esporte

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Uberlandia

Unknown 90+12'

Unknown 83'

6/7/2023

Mineiro - 2 · Round 9Estádio José Maria de Melo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

North Esporte41%

×Draw30%

Uberlandia29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North EsporteExpected goals in this matchUberlandia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.90

North Esporte

1.13

Uberlandia

0.90

North Esporte creates 26% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 10 away

1.45

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

North Esporte

1.45

Uberlandia

1.00

allows per match

North Esporte

0.80

Uberlandia

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Esporte+0.00on par

Uberlandia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Esporte ↓

Uberlandia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

North Esporte or draw

71%

North Esporte or Uberlandia

70%

Draw or Uberlandia

59%

Winning margin

North Esporte wins by 2+

17%

Uberlandia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

North Esporte 1+ goals

68%

North Esporte 2+ goals

31%

North Esporte 3+ goals

11%

Uberlandia 1+ goals

59%

Uberlandia 2+ goals

23%

Uberlandia 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

North Esporte (draw refunded)

59%

Uberlandia (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Esporte at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Uberlandia away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Esporte attack 1.45 + Uberlandia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.13

Uberlandia attack 1.00 + North Esporte defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

North Esporte scores more

41%

level

30%

Uberlandia scores more

29%

North Esporte at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "North Esporte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

83'

90+12'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff