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North Esporte vs Guarani MG — Mineiro - 2 2026

North Esporte
North Esporte
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Guarani MG
Guarani MG
Luiz Thiago 76'
Leo Baiano 17'
Maycon Rangel 71'
6/21/2025Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 10Estádio José Maria de Melo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

North Esporte46%
×Draw28%
Guarani MG25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Esporte
1.30
Guarani MG
0.88

North Esporte creates 48% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

North Esporte
1.45
Guarani MG
0.95

allows per match

North Esporte
0.80
Guarani MG
1.15

finishing

North Esporte+0.00on par
Guarani MG+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 63Over: 3763%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 57Yes: 4357%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Esporte ↓

Guarani MG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

North Esporte or draw
75%
North Esporte or Guarani MG
72%
Draw or Guarani MG
54%

Winning margin

North Esporte wins by 2+
21%
Guarani MG wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

North Esporte 1+ goals
73%
North Esporte 2+ goals
37%
North Esporte 3+ goals
14%
Guarani MG 1+ goals
59%
Guarani MG 2+ goals
22%
Guarani MG 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

North Esporte (draw refunded)
65%
Guarani MG (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Esporte at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Guarani MG away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Esporte attack 1.45 + Guarani MG defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.30

Guarani MG attack 0.95 + North Esporte defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

North Esporte scores more
46%
level
28%
Guarani MG scores more
25%

North Esporte at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "North Esporte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
Leo Baiano
71'
Maycon Rangel
76'
Luiz Thiago

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: North Esporte vs Guarani MG

North Esporte beat Guarani MG 2-1 in Mineiro - 2 on June 21, 2025.

Goals: Leo Baiano (17'), Maycon Rangel (71'), Luiz Thiago (76').

The match was played at Estádio José Maria de Melo in Montes Claros, Minas Gerais.