North Esporte 1–0 Caldense: Result & Stats

North Esporte

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Caldense

Unknown 54'

5/4/2024

Mineiro - 2 · Round 1Estádio José Maria de Melo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

North Esporte54%

×Draw27%

Caldense20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North EsporteExpected goals in this matchCaldense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.77

North Esporte

1.46

Caldense

0.77

North Esporte creates 90% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 15 away

1.45

creates per match

0.73

0.80

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

North Esporte

1.45

Caldense

0.73

allows per match

North Esporte

0.80

Caldense

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Esporte+0.00on par

Caldense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Esporte ↓

Caldense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

North Esporte or draw

80%

North Esporte or Caldense

73%

Draw or Caldense

46%

Winning margin

North Esporte wins by 2+

27%

Caldense wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

North Esporte 1+ goals

77%

North Esporte 2+ goals

43%

North Esporte 3+ goals

18%

Caldense 1+ goals

54%

Caldense 2+ goals

18%

Caldense 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

North Esporte (draw refunded)

73%

Caldense (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Esporte at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Caldense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Esporte attack 1.45 + Caldense defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Caldense attack 0.73 + North Esporte defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

North Esporte scores more

54%

level

27%

Caldense scores more

20%

North Esporte at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "North Esporte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff