North District 3–3 Rangers: Result & Stats

North District

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Rangers

Lo Kong Wai 25'

Kendy 16'

Matheus Chulapa 3'

Luiz Humberto 90+5', 40'

Lau Chi Lok 79'

11/24/2024

League #380 · Round 9North District Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

North District40%

×Draw21%

Rangers39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North DistrictExpected goals in this matchRangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.92

North District

1.94

Rangers

1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

2.08

creates per match

2.00

1.83

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

North District

2.08

Rangers

2.00

allows per match

North District

1.83

Rangers

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North District+0.00on par

Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North District ↓

Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

North District or draw

61%

North District or Rangers

79%

Draw or Rangers

60%

Winning margin

North District wins by 2+

21%

Rangers wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

North District 1+ goals

86%

North District 2+ goals

58%

North District 3+ goals

30%

Rangers 1+ goals

85%

Rangers 2+ goals

57%

Rangers 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

North District (draw refunded)

50%

Rangers (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North District at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

Rangers away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North District attack 2.08 + Rangers defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.94

Rangers attack 2.00 + North District defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

North District scores more

40%

level

21%

Rangers scores more

39%

North District at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "North District will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Matheus Chulapa

16'

Kendy

23'

Luiz Humberto← S. Suganuma

25'

Lo Kong Wai

40'

Luiz Humberto

42'

Guilherme Kayron

45+4'

W. F. Leung

46'

Fernando Lopes← A. Okamoto

46'

Li Wing Ho← Yiu Ho Ming

53'

R. Hayashi

62'

Pedro Costa← Kendy

70'

B. Braunshtain

78'

Wong Wai Kwok← Law Hiu Chung

79'

Lau Chi Lok

86'

Lau Chi-Lok

90+5'

Luizinho

90+8'

W. Wong

90+4'

Chu Wai Kwan← Matheus Chulapa

90+4'

Ho Chun Ting← Lo Kong Wai

90+5'

Luiz Humberto

North

Rangers

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Wai

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Chulapa

Manager: Pau Ka Yiu

62'▲Pedro Costa←▼Kendy

78'▲Wong Wai Kwok←▼Law Hiu Chung

90+4'▲Chu Wai Kwan←▼Matheus Chulapa

90+4'▲Ho Chun Ting←▼Lo Kong Wai

North District substitutes

CostaKwokKwanTingOrtegaWaMarcusHeiTingYinWegenerIn

Manager: Wong Chin Hung

23'▲Luiz Humberto←▼S. Suganuma

46'▲Fernando Lopes←▼A. Okamoto

46'▲Li Wing Ho←▼Yiu Ho Ming

Rangers substitutes

HumbertoLopesHoSunWanIanYenChunHinSangWongNicot