North District 2–1 BC Rangers: Result & Stats

North District

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

BC Rangers

3/14/2026

League #380

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

North District60%

×Draw20%

BC Rangers20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North DistrictExpected goals in this matchBC Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.17

North District

2.17

BC Rangers

1.17

North District creates 85% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

0.67

1.67

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

North District

2.00

BC Rangers

0.67

allows per match

North District

1.67

BC Rangers

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North District+0.00on par

BC Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North District ↓

BC Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

North District or draw

80%

North District or BC Rangers

80%

Draw or BC Rangers

40%

Winning margin

North District wins by 2+

37%

BC Rangers wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

North District 1+ goals

89%

North District 2+ goals

64%

North District 3+ goals

36%

BC Rangers 1+ goals

69%

BC Rangers 2+ goals

33%

BC Rangers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

North District (draw refunded)

75%

BC Rangers (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North District at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

BC Rangers away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North District attack 2.00 + BC Rangers defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

BC Rangers attack 0.67 + North District defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

North District scores more

60%

level

20%

BC Rangers scores more

20%

North District at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "North District will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff