North Carolina vs Tampa Bay Rowdies — USL Championship 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 77+ matches
North Carolina43%
Tampa Bay Rowdies32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
North Carolina creates 18% more chances
Season form · 77 home / 136 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
North Carolina ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
North Carolina at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.23 · 77 matches
Tampa Bay Rowdies away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.21 · 136 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
North Carolina attack 1.83 + Tampa Bay Rowdies defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.52
Tampa Bay Rowdies attack 1.35 + North Carolina defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
North Carolina at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "North Carolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
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Charleston Battery
Birmingham Legion
Saint Louis
Loudoun United
Charlotte Independence
Atlanta United II
Memphis 901
Bethlehem Steel
Hartford Athletic
Swope Park Rangers
Phoenix Rising
Reno 1868
Fresno FC
Real Monarchs
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Austin Bold
LA Galaxy II
New Mexico United
San Antonio
Rio Grande Valley
Las Vegas Lights
Portland Timbers II
OKC Energy
Tulsa Roughnecks
Tacoma Defiance
Colorado SpringsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
North Carolina host Tampa Bay Rowdies on Saturday, 23 March 2024 at 23:00. The match is part of the USL Championship 2026/2027 season.
North Carolina 1 – 1 Tampa Bay Rowdies
North Carolina and Tampa Bay Rowdies drew 1-1 in USL Championship on March 23, 2024.
Goals: M. Maldonado (63' o.g.), Rafael Mentzingen (75').
The match was played at WakeMed Soccer Park in Cary, North Carolina.